LYC 0.00% $6.40 lynas rare earths limited

"Political resolution: Decisive victory", page-29

  1. 7,451 Posts.
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    Every country has problems even US and AU. In fact large countries there are many more people that have to be pleased. Small countries higher probability of small number of people getting attention. The current lamps have tremendous value. They have a staff that achieves very high out put and are loyal. Yes the government has been unpredictable for the last year. But how much has it actually hurt Lynas? My guess is it has cost 5 weeks of loss productions..400M / 52 * 5 = AUD 38M / 691M shares= 5.5 cents a share. Now this is truly a one time extraordinary item hitting H1. So now stock price depends on H2 which I think will be same or slightly worse than H1 not because of anything in Malaysia, but because of low Nd prices and AL cutting production. This BRD is way to focused on Malaysia and not on core operating statistics. Why is simple. Many people bought this with dreams of riches. They have not materialized as expected. It is so easy to blame someone else rather than research core principles. Create an evil empire responsible for the dreams failing. And now everyone wants to hurt that empire by pulling out. This is not rational. Lynas will be worth allot more in the future. But not tomorrow or even next year. The WW economy has to become robust again. ND demand has to pick up. Both will happen but slower than people want. May actually drop before they improve especially WW economy.

    Has Malaysia has been a pain.? Yes. To blame everything on them and ignore other factors will not help people understand what is going on with Lynas. Malaysia has caused no disruption to production in H2 and will cause non in H1 2020. Start looking at what Lynas is doing to make your decisions and predictions. Listen to Q3 and Q4 CC the AR will not be all that good and Malaysia has only a little to do with that.


    A six month extension takes them past Q3 assuming it is from Sept 2. I am sure Lynas told there supporters they could have it all done by then, or it would have been a year. As I have said for 18 months this is a non issue long term.

 
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