political risk insurance

One of the things that concerned me the most about KGL recently was the possibility that they get the approval for Andash, go ahead with it using the debt facility to construct, and then face the possibility of the govt taking Andash away leaving us with debt.
That is why I have occassionally commented that I would prefer to see it sold off (at a reasonable price).

Obviously that is a threat we would have had to consider only after the likely big rally that would result from a decision to mine.

After talking to Simon yesterday, he told me that they are required to take out political risk insurance on the loan.

The cost is roughly 2% of the loan and would insure against the full amount of the outstanding debt under such a scenario.

It's a small price to pay.

The stock will no doubt fall in such a situation but only after rising strongly first and the insurance will reduce the risk and leave KGL debt free and still able to expand operations in Australia.
I now would be happy to see Andash get the go ahead knowing that we will not be left with debt and no project under the unlikely scenario of nationalisation of their gold mines.
Andash is easily worth $40c per share once producing before allowing for political risk, say 25-30c allowing for political risk?
Add that to 20c for Burnakura in 1 year, gives a target of 45-50c assuming Andash gets going in around 1.5 years.
By then the FS on Jervois is likely to show a NPV of a bare minimum of 25c in my opinion.
Lets assume at that time the market factors in 10c for Jervois.
Then I have a 20c target for Burnakura alone, 30c allowing some reasonable value for Jervois post the FS, and 55-60c if Andash goes ahead (discounted heavily for political risk).
40-50c is not bad upside potential on top of the current 10c for 1-1.5 years.
What's the down side potential. 3c maybe? Minute compared to the upside.