There is NO reason for a crash right now. Just look at economic...

There is NO reason for a crash right now. Just look at economic fundamentals.

Look at the last 20 years on the DJIA. Prior to the bear years 2000-2002 the market had TRIPPLED (3800 -> 11700) ie 200% increase in the preceeding five years = >25% per year in an environement with inflation about 2-3% -> real growth 22%PA. This was despite only a modest rise in company earnings and there was therefore a drop in PE to 15 - 20 or more in some sectors.

Since early 2003 at the start of the current bull run the DJIA has risen from around 8500 in Jan 2003 to just over 12000 = 41% increase = 8-9% per year ie REAL growth of about 5% per year. At the same time corporate earnings have increased by >20% per year, so the fundamentals to support current prices are even stronger now than they were at the start of the bull run of the last four years!

If you want to take it from 2000 highs (.com bubble) it is just a 3% rise in seven year (11700 - 12100) despite the world GDP over doubling in that time. The market was well due for a bear run at those 2000 peaks where PE was about twice what it is now, but by my figures we are currently due for an even stronger bull run than the rather limp one over the past four years just to "catch up" to the fundamentals.

The next few weeks will be great investing or trading if you have the cash to snatch up the bargains. BHP is my tip of the majors as metal prices recover (once China has to buy more as stockpiles depleted - looks like they stopped buying for a while in order to drop metal prices and pick up resources companies cheap).