poll..will the all ords get slammed tomorrow, page-102

The ASX has already had the DJIA fall - DJIA down 6.2% from peak, ASX down 6.1% from peak.

Notwithstanding this, I still feel ASX will fall by a moderate amount in anticipation of further falls on Wall Street.

US sentiment will be poor for some time as nobody really has much idea of what is going on.

It started with a few tin-pot dodgy-brothers US finance companies getting hit by too many loan defaults from low-income earners. This is where it would have ended if Bear Stearns, Mac bank and others said that a few of their funds were in trouble (note the parent companies are insulated from the direct fallout of this and are NOT in trouble though will suffer some loss of goodwill from investors in the short term).

When bad news comes from the biggies in the finance market then equities get punished as mentioned above in a sell-now-ask-questions-later fashion.

As the problem is poorly defined, uncertainty will likely surround the market for some weeks-months so the effect is worse than a much more serious blow that is quantified (eg say a MAJOR Australian company - maybe Coles, QANTAS, MAC Bank went into receivership). It is amazing the effect of a few yank underprivileged not being able to pay there loan repayments!

Down 100 at open, close down 60
Mon PM Dow falls 300 points
Tues AM ASX opens 200 down closes 300 down as market heads into a 20% correction
Wed AM - Howard and Costello come out and say the market has overreacted - precipitates fall to 1929 levels at the depths of the great depression with 97% wiped of sharemarket value!