Acamas,While you have made a valid list of possible outcomes it...

Acamas,

While you have made a valid list of possible outcomes it is certainly not a valid list of probable outcomes.

It is inconcievable that TLW haven't allowed an extra 20% on top of their opening low ball offer as part of their detailed get HDR campain. They also know the window of opportunity for them is now open as wide as it ever will be and may even now be starting to close. So the chances of Tullow walking away (following a knock back) without upping the bid I suggest is possible but very improbable. The question is whether they will risk waiting for the vote, or go for a KO beforehand, hence the polling of voting intentions now.

About the only thing TLW can be reasonably sure of is that an increased offer of say $2.50 before the vote will make the instos happy enough and probably win the day.