Yesterday we have seen the release of the final election polls for Resolve, Roy Morgan and Essential.
The common theme amongst all of the polls was Labor's primary capitulating in what is the final week of the election. With both Resolve and Essential showing a very tight race at 51/49 in the 2PP
The final Resolve Strategic poll for the Age/Herald campaign provides evidence for the long-delayed narrowing, with Labor down three points on the primary vote since the mid-campaign poll to 31% and the Coalition up a point to 34%. The Greens are down a point from an improbable height last time to 14%, while One Nation are up one to 6%, the United Australia Party are down one to 4%, independents are up two to 6% and others are steady on 4%. The accompanying report provides a two-party preferred result based on historic preference flows of 52-48 in favour of Labor, compared with 54-46 last time
Coalition leads by around 51.5-48.5 in New South Wales, which is fully ten points stronger for the Coalition than the previous poll and suggests no swing compared with 2019. Labor’s 53-47 lead in Victoria is also about the same as the 2019 result, and four points weaker for Labor than the previous poll. However, the Coalition is now credited with a lead of 53-47 in Queensland,
The final Essential Research poll of the campaign is probably available on The Guardian’s site by the time you read this – Peter van Onselen tweeted last night that it had Labor leading 51-49. https://www.pollbludger.net/
