Hi DB (CNE's announcement & my random thoughts)Based on CNE's...

Hi DB (CNE's announcement & my random thoughts)

Based on CNE's Preliminary Results Presentation, March 2020 (Page12 )
Sangomar Capex
		Cairn	FAR 15/40)	FAR 15/40)
	Cairn Net	Cumulative	p.a	cumulative
	US$m	US$m	US$m	US$m
2020	390	390	146	146
2021	470	860	176	323
2022	370	1,230	139	461
2023	270	1,500	101	563
	1,500		563
(First oil expected H1 2023)
https://www.cairnenergy.com/media/2555/preliminary-results-tuesday-10th-march-final.pdf
FAR's Funding
Cash as per 21/2/20 ann			168	Less $42m for cash call - from Dec '19 quarterly but incl in $563 below
Less ICC fees and related			(20)	??
Less 4 yrs Salaries & overheads			(40)	+ more Options?
Less drill costs (Gambia etc)			(40)	??Maybe results from this will surprise to the upside?
Sangomar Capex			(563)	Extrapolated from CNE
Senior lending facilty			300	Just how binding is this though. The terms?
Shortfall			(195)	Secondary debt/CR etc (blank canvas but probably doable)
So the good news is that, depending on the Lenders, we can sail (very possibly beneath the waves SP wise) through 2020, 2021 and part of 2022.
Which just leaves the rest of 2022 and half (but maybe all?) of 2023 to get through. Delays happen.
Weigh all that up with the incomings expected from 2023 onwards (I haven't worked it out), the hedging (anyone remember Sons of Gwalia?) & POO
E&OE.Its late - just my random jottings.
And if we think the long termers are hurting, spare a thought for AG.
For many it was a long drawn out teasing process.Like frogs in lukewarm water.Its getting kind of warm now though.
But the poor b'staards at AG put hundreds of millions in the till on one day only to find that half of it was gone the following morning.
Then they went and did it again the following day
As did the 4.25c Sophs and SPPers (bless them all, the latter in particular)
(non-litigious) Corporate activity ahead?Wouldn’t surprise me if overtures haven't already been made to the big 3.Entirely my own speculation.