pop quiz, who has ever won against china?, page-7

i believe the world cannot allow any one country to maintain a monopoly on any vital resource.......

we have seen the problems opec has caused the world.....

now the opec monopoly is on the verge of being broken forever......

the rare earths supply chain is at present dominated by china....the japanese have now seen when they have a disagreement with china.......the USA Britan,France and other countries see the control over rare earths as a threat to economic and National security.....

so the monopoly has to be broken now...not wait it out for decades and put up with the likes of the problems created by Opec and the Sth American Cartel

as for Chinese iron ore...its poor quality.....

the Chinese are dragging out every legal excuse for the WTO ant competition case.....

they are creating their own case...by shutting down mines ..fro "environmental reasons"

this decreases supply available....so they can argue they need to retain sufficent supply for domestic use.....

the quantities being stockpiled cannot be proven...as Chinese data cannot be trusted.......

the black market sales in previous times would have ended up being laundered through legitimate brokers....so the picture gets a bit muddied on what was black market and what was legal chinese supplies......

I don't believe the global buyers are fully disclosing their own inventory levels.....very easy to hold those supplies in a nominee company..or some other structure......

the global buyers are not biting...they are NOT offering to pay higher prices.......so it appears they have sufficent supplies till other suppliers come online......

Buyers will cover themselves with a future higher inventory and maintain a diversified supply chain ..ensuring they are NOT dependent on ANY ONE SUPPLIER...

they will still buy from the chinese..but will also buy from any other producer to ensure this monopoly never happens again

for now LYC ...we wait till the first finished products and sales can begin......this will be the end of the Chinese monopoly......

At Chinas present rate of expansion it will become a net buyer......it may go down the road of Importing the mineral sands...its already signed one such deal......so thats a fair indication..that China has a looming problem sourcing high grade domestic mineral sands to produce the rare earths it NEEDS......

the Chinese have total control over prices at this stage.....and the aim has been to make it uneconomic for any new producers to enter the industry......they can't maintain this position once they start losing BUYERS....and slowly move to being NET buyers........

its good for lYC as the Chinese are making it economically impossible for new producers to enter the market...and when the price does rise...any potential producers will have lost the opportunity to cash in on higher prices...they will take up to 2 years to develop the mines ..if they already have all the approvals and financing in place........

if they don't have these in place.....they will struggle to develop into producers......

...they also will need MORE THAN MINERAL SANDS...they will need the most profitable rare earths in their deposits.....

-----------------------------
as for the shorters

as at 25/01/2013 shorts stood at 152,656,355 shares or 7.79% TOTAL shares on issue in LYC at that date was 1,960,801,292 shares

as at 22/09/2012 short positions were 236,834,229 shares or 13.8% TOTAL shares on issue at that time were 1.716,159,363 shares

ON 21/12/2012 SHORT POSITIONS HIT A LOW of 117,423,343 shares or 5.99%
Shares on issue as at 21/12/2012 were 1,960,801,292 shares

DATA SOURCES FROM ASIC

http://www.asic.gov.au/asic/asic.nsf/byheadline/Short+position+reports+table?openDocument
----------------------------------