I am really happy for anyone to pick the faults in this argument and would be really keen to see what counter arguments there are?
-Cash rate at .75% , lowest rate in more than 50 years
-Investors are looking for returns and the stock market is looking really inviting
- Banks are at all time lows as they are getting squeezed on margins
- The Iron Iro miners are expecting really good results with the iron ore price as it is.
- The Price Earnings of all three companies are BHP 17.46 Rio 8.96 FMG 7.28. This PE is subject to the iron price.
- I believe Iron Ore will drop in price, which will make the whole ASX fall back, but, say if it stays where it is, I would expect the resources that didn't rise to have a good 2020, Nickel,coal,Aluminium. I cannot see much rise in Uranium while ever renewables are on the cards. I expect Lithium to stage a recovery and can see the moves in PLS as investors anticipating a recovery.
If Iron ore reverts back to lower than $70, we will see a correction up to 10%.
- Our household debt is so large that any shock will be exacibated causing an over correction
- A correction will cause a hiccup in real estate, however, housing will always be popular at the current interest rates
- Real estate will become a problem when interest rates start to turn, especially if the international investor start to evacuate the Australian market.
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