Portfolio, page-14

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    @skinsy11,

    Thanks, I did read that report when it came out.

    Frankly, I think that those categories contain a degree of overlap which makes the survey results a bit subject to interpretation; for example, ESG issues and investor pressure to maintain capital discipline are not too dissimilar influences, as is the lack of access to financing.

    What I did find more interesting in that report was the frequent reference to record highs being reached in input cost indices for the US oil and gas sector, as well as the service sector.

    This is consistent with numerous other reports I've encountered over recent months, which goes a long way to explaining why the Baker Hughes drill rig count in the US shales is struggling to recover to what one might consider "normal" levels for the current oil and gas pricing environment.

    Current number of rigs is around 530, having risen by just 40 since the start of the year, and well below the >700 rig number that it is estimated by energy specialists is needed to arrest the concerning falls in drilled, but uncompleted wells (aka DUCs), which are essentially the well inventory in the US shales and therefore a leading indicator of its future output:

    DUCs.JPG
    [Source: EIA]

    And, at around 12% of global oil supply, the US oil industry (particularly the shales) is a big deal these days, in terms of being able to keep the global oil market supplied.

    And because the shales aren't responding, inventories in the US have been drawn down to levels last seen in a decade and a half (and even two decades based on Day's Inventory):

    US Inventory.JPG


    It was a vexed issue before the Russia/Ukraine situation and with the northern hemisphere driving season approaching (gasoline demand now being effectively subsided by the government) and air travel resuming post-Covid, it is mightily difficult to envisage what the circuit breaker will be.

    .
 
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