posing a few questions re. abm, page-81

“Still a fair whack of paper gold to be gotten rid of”
What do you mean Reiner?
The latest COT chart shows commercials are still reducing shorts/adding to longs and specs are very low on longs with small specs all out of longs (on a net basis- i.e. just as many are short as long now). I have seen a chart showing that commercials have not been this low on net shorts since the very early 2000’s at the end of the gold bear. There are now almost as many commercial long positions as short. While ETF’s have also been selling and still hold a lot of gold, the paper trading dwarfs the physical so any turnaround in paper gold will drive the price back up and investors will begin to jump back in to the ETF’s when that happens. Paper gold drove the price down; it might be what drives it back up again- not what the traders are doing with ETF’s.
"In gold, the Commercial net short position hasn't been this low since August 27, 2002. The gold raptors hold the largest net long position since February 20, 2001."
"In silver, the Commercial net short position hasn't been this low since February 2, 1993...more than twenty years ago! The silver raptors hold the largest net long position in the history of the data...and the non-commercial net long position hasn't been this low since April 15, 2003...more than ten years ago."
http://www.caseyresearch.com/gsd

Last week caused a few worries with POG dropping further but AUD holding up. Friday we had a big reversal of that with AUD dropping to a new low and POG rallying. AUD POG up a whopping 4% in one day and putting in a double bottom.
Following charts suggest a near term rally for our gold sector. Whether it only last 2-4 weeks again or we have actually seen a major bottom will not be clear for some time. The COT chart suggests a major low is not far off (if not already in).
Any rally is going to be good timing for ABU which is getting set to start processing in around 2 weeks. It may help with buyers that want in to ABU before the results start flowing. A rally is never guaranteed but the charts give a strong indication we are about to have one.