I try to read half year and full year reports, together with key announcements. I haven't had time to draw conclusions for myself, but pose the following re: distributions:
1. cash from operations in the half - announced Feb-10 - was $17m
2. the Japanese commercial bank restructured loans sometime after that - presumably covenant breach as they imposed tighter controls, or was it just loan expiry? - maybe related to hedge being too far out of the money
3. part of the loan restructure was mandatory debt amortisation of 125m Yen per quarter = AUD3m per half (I think, basic estimate)
4. $14m operating earnings remaining after amortisation, if revenue stays flat
5. a couple of million for capex
6. leaves $12m new cash = half what was distributed last half ($25m)
Distributions greater than operating cashflows will knock cash down and reduces equity value. I suspect a reduction in distribution, by say 30% from last half, may be on the cards...but still solid.
thoughts?
...super-normal dividend yields are not typical...more people do this for a career than us, and have more time to analyse yields...
AJA Price at posting:
$3.60 Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
