Good points jp37.The 17m cash from operations during the first...

Good points jp37.
The 17m cash from operations during the first half was much less than what the management has expected. On 16 Dec 2009 they announced that they expect 27m cash from operations, the 10m gap was quite big.

Please note that the distribution paid for the half year ended 30 June 2009 was 5c per unit, while it was 3.5c only for the half ended 31 Dec 2010, so comparing the 12m with 25m cash flow was not quite accurate IMO as the amount of distribution paid for both periods was not the same.

I agree with your conclusion that there might be a reduction in the distribution, but i also remember that everyone was expecting the same last Dec till the management confirmed that they will pay 3.5c and they kept the full year guidance of 7c unchanged.

The recent changes in AUD exchange rate might bring us nice surprises, and it might make the 3.5c more affordable. As i mentioned to you earlier, many in the market agree with your opinion that there might be a reduction in the distribution, so if the management confirms paying the full 3.5c for the second half, the share price will react in a very positive way IMO.

Usually the management announces the amount of distribution payable two weeks before the ex dividend day so we will all know in two weeks time.