Just a few personal musings. After 3 weeks I believe even more now that NGF have handled this attempted TO very badly. They pitched at a stupidly low level that was never likely imo to succeed given the asset and recently announced progress. If they had offered 10 or 11c, then I think they’d have avoided a lot of criticism and possibly may have achieved a 20% + take up.
Anyway we and they are where we are. I’m obv very curious about how this will play out. I think NGF have talked themselves into an awkward position. They clearly want BGL, but have indicated publically and in the Bidders Statement that they don’t see BGL as worth much more 7c, however SH’s noticeably disagree.
So how can NGF save face and offer a figure that would convince up to 50% to sell without embarrassingly offering double, triple or more, without consequently looking rather stupid for the initial statements and offer? I don’t think they can, or will make a much higher offer, maybe 11c max imo which may get 20%?
So BGL may possibly survive largely unchanged by this TO but have less retail SH’s and possibly a large stakeholder that has essentially secured a important stake in BGL for itself, and that will most likely work with Brett to the benefit of all remaining retail SH’s.
It was interesting Brett reportedly was complimentary towards NGF’s CEO Mr Chen at the recent Proactive meeting. Possibly realising they will be working together at some point?!
Maybe I’m being too optimistic but NGF’s initial low ball derisory offer may eventually help unlock the goldmine for us all!?
Interesting couple of months ahead.
BAB Price at posting:
7.3¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
