thanks plough for your thoughtful analysis. I have doubled down...

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15/11/18

18:26

Post #: 36522119
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Originally posted by plough ↑

seems your comprehension of the presentation was not how I comprehended it .

Point 1
My understanding is The residential loans are standard for retirement REITS , non interest bearing loans , that are part of the contracts signed at the outset by the retirees and bought back within 12 months of resident departure the probability of these loans being called in I suspect is extremely remote .

Pont 2
Re "500 unsold units" presentation states "Demand for new stock sales are now expected to be circa 275 units in FY19 up on the FY18 sales of 225 – FY20 production will be scaled back accordingly"

it also states "
On track to deliver 418 major development units in FY19  Focus on sale of new units and re-invest capital into development and growth but in line with underlying demand

It also states there is $95M in inventory , that is a lot less that 500 units as from memory units cost around $500K each and the inventory probably includes existing vacated units . but yes they could make that info more explicit in what actually is inventory .

I do not understand how you come up with Circa 500+ unsold units , seems far less to me

Point 3
Think you will find for FY18 underling profit was $127M , statutory profit around 365M but EPS is calculated on underlying profit so profits are not revaluation driven

The company does have too much glossy crap in its presentations with KPIs that only they seem to have and not allowing comparisons to other companies , it has taken me years to learn how to decipher the acronyms and all the BS , possibly why there is little trust in the company as it still is opaque despite a supposedly more straightforward business model now just focusing on retirement

(I bought more today did not expect it to drop so much though)

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thanks plough for your thoughtful analysis. I have doubled down ... but I still think we are all waiting to be rescued and that in a major resi crash this stock is worthless ... let's hope it doesn't come to that

AOG Price at posting: $1.63 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
2 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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