Guerilla, as much as I generally agree with what you post, I think that you are pushing the envelope with this statement and projected calculations.
Havilah Mgmt has said in the past that the data is not consistent enough to provide a JORC resource, which means that nobody knows for sure what the grade of the ore captured in the tailings actually is.
" More than 120 samples were collected across the two tailings storage cells and were composited for metallurgicaltesting purposes. The composite samples returned gold assays between 0.21 to 1.91 grams per tonne and wereconsidered too variable to estimate a JORC mineral resource for the Portia tailings. Accordingly, Havilah is unable topublish an estimate of the gold contained in the tailings but considers that the assay results are sufficientlyencouraging to warrant further investigation of the viability of reprocessing the estimated 570,000 dry tonnes oftailings available." http://www.havilah-resources.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Quarterly_Report_30Apr2018_Final.pdf
Furthermore, your calculations assume that all of the gold will be recovered. However, It is more realistic that 50% will be recovered and then it could also be assumed that costs will eat into the remaining 50%. Under these more prudent calculations, your projected "mid" yields approximately $9M of profits.
Given the risks (that all of us shareholders know too well), maybe Havilah Mgmt didn't give away SO much after all.
My 2cents, JDI.
HAV Price at posting:
16.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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