possible bounce about now_ish...

Hmmm been playing a lot on the AUDUSD pair lately... practising with pitchforks n doing my usual momentum shizzle...

mutterings as I've been playing have been presented on my blog (in my signature below this post) as they occur and have just completed the following which is suggesting to me, if not immediately then well soon we be looking at some potential upside.

Note the charts in the below are dynamic, that is you can click on em for a bigger view or Right-click and select Open in new tab or Open in new window to display the larger charts outside the post...

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First, before I go into some pitchfork stuff, I'd like to present the weekly chart for the AUDUSD pair, as price approaches an interesting moving average level:

This interesting level is the 21 Period Moving average... Time and time again the reaction of price to the 21 Period moving average has been interesting on many instruments and many timespans and I use it often for judging entriees.

If price bounces from this level, then continuation of the trend is high potential, if price pierces and closes below, then trend reversal at least for the short term is high potential.

as well, the number of times that price has previously touched or pierced the 21 period moving average in a current trend can be significant, two touches, or pierces in the major Trend, and the third touch pierce has a higher probability of a break through and trend reversal.

In this cae, on the weekly, since the surge from the march lows, we have yet to have a touch or pierce of the 21MA. The current situation is a first, suggesting that sustained trend reversal is less likely on the weekly timespan.

But while we are here, Note that the MACD has performed a downside cross over, and note also that the stochasticks are pointing down.

Okay moving on the Daily and the middle tine of the Pitchfork I have had sitting on the chart for a while.

So far Price has respected the top tine rather well, and had two bounces in its meandering journey downwards.

Two hits already? The third is oft the break through... we are approaching this tine/trendline for the third time...

Be that as it may... it is interesting to note that there is some historical resistance as marked by the blue arrow at the left of the chart, and the coincidence with the middle tine should not be ignored, nor the fact as pointed out on the weekly chart above, that this is also the location of the 21 Period Moving average and could provide resistance (bounce point) in that higher timespan.

So lets take a bit of a look at how price is approaching this area from a lower timespan perspective:

Unto the Hourly...Big Picture view

This is over the same timespan as the daily above so we can see on the lefthand side the historical resistance, and also note the previously marked band of support Resistance (two thick Horizontal black lines) has been fairly resoundingly broken. Again after the third time this level was tested.

Okay.. A bit of a zoom in on the hourly:

Here we can see we have definate divergence from the previous marked low.
Coupled with a quick check on the stochastics on this timespan, where they are heading into the overbought region, suggestions are that momentum and cycles on this timespan are leaning more to exhaustion to the downside, and strength to the potential of movement exhaustion dowside, as we approach resistance.

Okay moving down even further, now into the 30  minute for a brief gander

This chart is only showing very recent action.

But again note how we actually have some preety strong localised divergenc right on current price3 action.


(Note I am doing this with live charts so price levels are changing along with time as I post.)

Okay let's go to a far lower level and hit the 10 minute:

Okay MACD moving average Divergence is VERY marked here... and I am strongly considering going long, particularly if we get a bounce up of the stochastic.

Things are prolly a bit too interesting to be posting, but I will take a further look at the five minute and see what that is saying.
5 minute:

Okay: this is looking pretty hot to trot...

Ive got three arrows on the left hand side pinting at things I would like to see to be happy to get on this right now...

One... a close above the 21MA on price (currently trending down and red

This would also correspond with a breaking of very localised resistance marked by the blue line segment.
Two... A cross over of the Fast blue MACD moving average over the red slow MACD moving average

Three.. the stochastic signal line (thin Black) making it above 50.



Potential price targets hinted by the vertical line on the local extreme negative MACDHistogram, give a range from .892 ish through to .898... support areas recently broken.

Of cours, new lows and the whole hourly down reassesment begins.

Let's see if I can jump on it correctly this time

Trade well all

;)