CJ, thought I should make comment. Pleasing to see you are now starting to look ahead. Could you please provide your projected earnings for FY20 based on your revenue numbers posted above, then do your EPS and TMM calculations.
With respect to the FY19 year my numbers are as follows:
Revenue $393M
Earnings $84M
EPS 12.57c
PE 21.32
I believe you have made an error in your earnings calculations. You are suggesting earnings will be $40m higher in H2 19 than H1 19. Am I reading you correctly? That gives the following.
H1 19 $19m
H2 19 $19 + $40m = $59m. Add the two halves equals $78m. This is reasonably close to my expected $84M. I could live with the difference given the uncertainties we are having to deal with.
There are too many one offs included in the FY19 earnings to allow meaningful analysis in my view.
What I am really interested in is your expected FY20 earnings.
Using your revenue figures of $636M which I believe might be on the high side, but no need to argue, I am projecting net earnings before tax of $344M. Tax not likely to be a material issue.
Using the same calculation for PE as above this gives a figure of 5.2. In my view a more realistic figure would be 20 therefore theoretical share value should be circa $10. Noting that shares always seem to either under or over achieve fair value you can guess where this number might end up.
Interested in your thoughts.
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