USGS report 2018: "The estimated value of rare-earth compounds...

USGS report 2018:

"The estimated value of rare-earth compounds and metals imported by the United States in 2018 was $160 million, an increase from $137 million in 2017. The estimated distribution of rare earths by end use was as follows: catalysts, 60%; ceramics and glass, 15%; metallurgical applications and alloys, 10%; polishing, 10%; and other, 5%."

https://prd-wret.s3-us-west-2.amazo...ium/production/atoms/files/mcs-2019-raree.pdf

Estimate $160M , +$23M from 2017 but less 1200t imported compounds and reported prices look basically static?

catalysts, 60% > mainly La, and looks low on other reported numbers

ceramics and glass, 15% > mainly Ce

metallurgical applications and alloys, 10% > probably close to 50% Yttrium on USGS 2017 data

polishing, 10% > Ce

Yet USGS 2017:

"The estimated value of rare-earth compounds and metals imported by the United States in 2017 was $150 million, a significant increase from $118 million imported in 2016. The estimated distribution of rare earths by end use was as follows: catalysts, 55%; ceramics and glass, 15%; metallurgical applications and alloys, 10%; polishing, 5%; and other, 15%."

https://prd-wret.s3-us-west-2.amazo...ium/production/atoms/files/mcs-2019-raree.pdf

Joseph Gambogi admitted to me two years ago when we met that their data is a bit of a guess. It's also a bit of a mess when you look at the 2018 Mine Production (estimate) where they very clearly mix concentrate & oxides, which the lightweight media blindly quotes, along with their dartboard numbers on reserves.

US mkt third largest by volume but the bulk is relatively low La & Ce catalyst material (note the 1400t of Ce compound from 2017, presumably largely autocat, disappeared 2018 report).

If you are looking for the much fabled DOD demand you can find it page 6 GAO report 2016:

"The United States is a major consumer of defense and commercial end products containing rare earths, however, its demand for rare earths is approximately nine percent of the global demand, according to DOD estimates. Also, DOD demand is approximately only one percent of the United States demand."

https://www.gao.gov/assets/680/675165.pdf

1% of 9%, too small to worry about, too important not too. Other Govt reports DOD demand basically admit they haven't a clue how much or where, oxides/metals/compounds/enabled components.

In contrast Lynas data Japan, second largest mkt after China:



Hardly necessary to work dollar values, NdPr would be +2x US alone, more important to note the symbiotic relationship between Lynas supply & Japanese demand, and the rapidly growing mkt share in all major segments. NdO has probably pushed magnet inputs closer to 80%, and together with PrO, will have enabled LAMP to manufacture precise LRE compounds to boost growth further in volume & value other segments.

Lynas has achieved this by revitalising an existing Japanese RE MSC manufacturing base, hence the consist support from Govt via JOGMEC/JARE, whereas the US virtually a void outside FCC catalysts. Blueline JV is a LT exercise/attempt to stimulate a US RE middle supply chain, we wait to see how serious Govt is beyond the rhetoric.

German Govt now making noises re emulating the Lynas/Japan success but a long road to hoe, where else a penny dreadful to go beyond the Dragon?