possible manufacturing contract in india for relen, page-2

Just mentioned that. This has been in negotiation for months with nothing more than a rubber stamp needed to cement the deal. The indian market is usually well informed from within companies - I believe that this will be released any day now. Unbelievable news for Biota as it confirms that gsk have many more sales unanounced!

IMho of course

Subject flood the market (bta opportunity)
Posted 10/12/05 11:39 - 66 reads
Posted by powwww
IP 211.28.xxx.xxx
Post #825649 - in reply to msg. #825622 - splitview

It will not be this easy.

Your understanding is flawed to the extent that even when a vaccine is introduced - anti virals will still be of utmost importance. If a true pandemic is realised (10% chance this year, 90% chance over 10 years-WHO) the virus will be able to mutate frighteningly quickly - this will basically mean that between mutations and finding a NEW vaccine antivirals will be used. This could equate to a huge proportion of time sadly. The mechanisms of relenza are such that H5N1 will not likely become immune to it where the mechanisms of tamiflu are the opposite. Governements are realising this truth now and putting forward greater interest in relenza now. The US government is now more likely to split the 81million dose order EQUALLY between relenza and biota. This would push the sp over $3.00. GSK JUST signed one agreement which will double relenza production and 22 minutes ago "According to reports, NP is likely to sign a third party manufacturing contract with the global pharmaceutical leader GlaxoSmithKline for its avian flu drug brand, Relenza."
http://www.expresspharmapulse.com/20051215/market08.shtml. I do not have to stress to you how important this will be to relenzas market share. It will enable relenza to break into a market which atm is dominated by tamiflu - the demand is absolutely scary.

The price drop has been caused by two parties. One is the most influential analyst covering biota Matthijis Smith from Patersons. "Two weeks ago Smith released a sell recommendation on BTA, saying that the stock was fully valued at $1.67. How Smith arrived at this valuation is too complex to recite here, but one of his assumptions was that BTA received a 7% royalty. Last Thursday however, Smith discovered that Biota in fact receives a 6% royalty (because the CSIRO and the VCP take a cut), and he has subsequently revised down his valuation to $1.51. This news has been filtering down the investment chain over the last two trading days."

"There is no Australian analyst who really knows what he or she is talking about when it comes to BTA (except when they recite information first provided by me), but because of the absence of firm information on BTA's prospects coming out of Biota itself, analyst recommendations, even if based on flawed logic, are carrying considerable weight in the market place."

"There is a second broker (Taylor Collison) that wanted to conduct a capital raising for BTA at a low-ball price about a month ago, but have been (rightly) knocked backed by the board. This broker has since been talking down the stock." Ousia.S

If you study the last two days of trade It seems that there are a few people pushing the price lower with the intention of panicking others into selling. When the price moves north 100 parcels were sold at a cheaper price. Certainly the potential to move in is very soon with bta's new ceo wanting to make an anouncement before the new year. In court proceedings biota has pushed for more countries to be included in the discovery process - obviously to strengthen their case as well as find out information on certain orders. Certainly gsk is not obliging and could also be happy to buy bta at this low ball figure if they knew a settlement was close.

In short, Relenza is one of two drugs the WHO (world health organisation) are instructing countries to stockpile. If a pandemic breaks out countries will be forced into recession so the investment into stockpiles of antivirals is rightly recomended and a small price to pay. Tamiflu was getting the majority of this multi billion dollar indiustry but it seems the table are about to turn. IF they do - Biota is correctly valued $3.00 +. IMHO

The conditions for Relenza is improving at the same time that the share price is weakening.

Market opportunities are made of such coincidences!