Possible Q1 AISC

Hi guys,

I have done a quick analysis on what I think may be the Q1 AISC now that BDR have missed guidance.

I have provided the data used and then the resultant chart.

Assumptions used for this include:

170k annual production (lower guidance) results in USD$890 oz AISC (higher guidance)
190k annual production (higher guidance) results in USD$810 oz AISC (lower guidance)

I have assumed 70% fixed costs and 30% variable. I have fiddled with these numbers to see the changes. Basically the higher the variable costs the flatter the lines, the higher the fixed costs the steeper the line.

Note that due to the production profile, even if BDR hit their guidance AISC per oz was / is budgeted to continually fall during the FY - i.e. Q1 was always going to be relatively bad vs. annual guidance.

Now, however, because BDR missed guidance in Q1 I estimate / guess that AISC could be as high as USD $1,093 per oz. Note that this uses the latest USD guidance provided by BDR which is prior to their 10/3/15 announcement that they are benefiting from BRL movements so this may be too conservative / negative (or not !!):



Cheers
John