I have been a holder of UMC for some time and always enjoy reading these threads.
As this is my first ever post on UMC, I thought it should have some substance and relevant information in it.
I have heard through what I would consider a reliably informed and certainly I would say very credible source within the broking community that the malign in the current UMC share price is perceived to be from what is considered a OVERHANG in the market place of some 20.4M UMC shares that THX hold.
Further investigation I have made on this issue appears groundless as although THX are a willing seller of their UMC position they are in no way anxious to do so unless the price is somewhere north of at least $3.50 and closer to $4.
As of next month Copernicus will be up and running providing THX with a steady stream of revenue for the foreseeable future and they are not in any dire need of urgent cash currently.
The mining experience they have knows full well the true value of Railway and it’s JORCED 100MT of DSO iron ore so are certainly in no way in any hurry to give it away too cheaply.
Especially as the current drilling and further defining of the resource is only adding to the value of the project and eventual price they are likely to get for their 20.4M shares.
Even if whoever was to pay $4 share, $80M for 13.333% of 112MT + MINIMUM, the enterprise value they are paying is only $5.35 per tonne of DSO ore compared to Euroz’s valuation of $8 per tonne.
Recently Murchison MMX offered at least $8.50 per tonne for Midwest’s MIS DSO resource
If this is the case which I suspect it is then nobody in the market place should be under this impression that THX is going to give it away.
It is only going to be a matter of time however, before it is sold to whoever at the right price. Which will,
1) immediately put a price under the stagnating share price and
2) remove this perceived overhang of stock.
THX have previously stated that they would not be a seller of UMC until after the JORC and they have a fair idea of what they are selling.
I believe now is that time.
Would be very interested on what some of the other UMC holders think of this for discussion as believe UMC are in the best possible position of all iron ore companies in the Pilbara as they certainly have the best resource.
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