some possible scenario's, speculating of course... figures are approx usd value (gross) to the company for the resource and would be nett to thk with 12.5% and taking into account possible quality losses, however, measurement uncertainty of +/- 15% on my calcs
absolute worst
= 0bcf, we are all screwed (however, in this gas field and surrounding areas, this has never occurred over this size acreage, so basically impossible)
worst
= 18.26M USD
average
= 45.21M USD
good
= 81.94M USD
excellent
= 107.4M USD
how did i calculate?
i calculated bcf porbable case based on nearby operations (took average of tcf over 3 nearby operators in similar shales and simply divided by their acreage size) - unfortunately, this is why they do the 3D seismic and this method is flawed as you may have 100,000 acres, but all the gas is in say 2-3% of that area... i had to use something though, i don't have 3d data, they do...
calculating usd amount?
I have simpy used Henry Hub spot prices and used an average of factors applied to the henry hub rate to take account for quality losses. I took the bcf to USD valuations of 4 other companies in the area and used an average factor to apply to bcf calcs to givea usd amount.. (note the factors only varied by 5% anyway so they are pretty close to the mark i feel)
in wrapping , this is only the conventional data, they have unconventional as well.. also, as they have a 12.5% stake, their costs to generate this revenue will be very low / mcf...
cheers and good luck...
anyways, i am not qualified (at all), other than i can use an abacus, in these sorts of calculations so if anyone else would like to work out what 12.5% of 30,000 acres in one of the most prominent gas producing areas of the world would be, please feel free. i could be way off the mark and walking with the fairies... green fairies...
THK
unknown
