While awaiting some numbers from the CDP, I thought I would start a new thread & throw some possible royalty/pricing numbers around. Hopefully it will generate some discussion around a future valuation of HZR & tap other peoples ideas around royalties & pricing.
It seems HZR are often talking about 100 Ktpa (10,000 tpa plants, I assume they mean 100 ktpa of hydrogen out & not input gas) so I have based it on this + remember, they are talking about 10 plants in 10 years, which hopefully is VERY conservative.
LOTS of variables here ESPECIALLY what grade/type/price they can get for the graphite, which unprocessed, varies somewhere between $200/t to $5000+/t depending who you listen too & also the fact that there is approx. 3.8x more graphite than hydrogen. I have used $1000/t
Easy enough to make a spreadsheet of this with ability to adjust royalty/prices as time goes by & royalty/pricing becomes clearer.
SO just as a rough starter:
H2 - 10,000 tpa = 10,000,000 kg/yr hydrogen at say 5% royalty, at say $1.50/kg = $0.075/kg x 10,000,000kg = $750,000/yr
Graphite - approx. 3.8x hydrogen so 38,000,000 kg/yr at say 5% royalty, at say $1/kg = $0.05/kg x 38,000,000kg = $1,900,000/yr
Carbon credits ????? - no idea & I assume it depends of application i.e. replacing SMR or processing 'stranded' natural gas
Total = $750,000 + $1,900,000 = $2.650,000/yr + carbon credits per 100 ktpa plant .
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