That all makes perfect sense to me and I think it could play out as you mention. The exploration upside and first mover advantage are huge. Hard to price but I wouldn’t want anything less then $7 per share. My advice to holders would be do not sell into market when the first offer comes!
I tend to think what is the negative in sandfire launching a $4 bid? They either will end up with Adriatic (for a much higher price then $4) or they start a bidding war. Either way they win.
Another scenario was posted by a major holder Datt Capital a few months ago. The post is as follows (posted on twitter).
Hypothesis: $ADT.ax would fit nicely into $S32.ax's portfolioClear geographic gap in S32 projects
-S32 looking to increase base metal exposure
-Big focus on ROIC - Vares' financial metrics are off the charts
-Material effect on shareholder return for S32
-S32.ax's best growth opportunities in Hermosa & Ambler years away from permitting & production.
-ADT.ax's Vares should receive full permits shortly.-
-ADT's exploration opportunity is significant in proven mineral belts in line w/ S32's strategy
Possible Scenarios, page-2
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Last
$4.20 |
Change
-0.270(6.04%) |
Mkt cap ! $1.081B | |||
| Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
| $4.40 | $4.42 | $4.12 | $6.286M | 1.478M |
Buyers (Bids)
| No. | Vol. | Price($) |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | 4523 | $4.18 |
Sellers (Offers)
| Price($) | Vol. | No. |
|---|---|---|
| $4.20 | 963 | 1 |
View Market Depth
| Last trade - 16.10pm 24/04/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
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Last
$4.20 |
Change
-0.270 ( 5.45 %) |
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| Open | High | Low | Volume | ||
| $4.41 | $4.41 | $4.12 | 192787 | ||
| Last updated 15.59pm 24/04/2024 ? | |||||
| ADT (ASX) Chart |