That all makes perfect sense to me and I think it could play out as you mention. The exploration upside and first mover advantage are huge. Hard to price but I wouldn’t want anything less then $7 per share. My advice to holders would be do not sell into market when the first offer comes!
I tend to think what is the negative in sandfire launching a $4 bid? They either will end up with Adriatic (for a much higher price then $4) or they start a bidding war. Either way they win.
Another scenario was posted by a major holder Datt Capital a few months ago. The post is as follows (posted on twitter).
Hypothesis: $ADT.ax would fit nicely into $S32.ax's portfolioClear geographic gap in S32 projects -S32 looking to increase base metal exposure -Big focus on ROIC - Vares' financial metrics are off the charts -Material effect on shareholder return for S32 -S32.ax's best growth opportunities in Hermosa & Ambler years away from permitting & production. -ADT.ax's Vares should receive full permits shortly.- -ADT's exploration opportunity is significant in proven mineral belts in line w/ S32's strategy
ADT Price at posting:
$2.49 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
A personalised tool to help users track selected stocks. Delivering real-time notifications on price updates, announcements, and performance stats on each to help make informed investment decisions.
(20min delay)