Possible Scenarios, page-9

Great post and thread @retrac.

My biggest fear in all of this is just how hard SFR are prepared to play.

During the NST takeover of EAR in 2019 NST lobbed what was generally considered as a pretty low-ball offer of 33 cents and raced to 50% holding through a combination of cross trades (presumably from nominees who werre holding stock on their behalf) and on-market buying. At that point NST took control of the board and proceeded to threaten shareholders with delisting EAR and taking the company private and/or diluting us into oblivion through cap raises to resucitate the mothballed Bronzewig plant. It was pretty brutal stuff really. And it worked. They never paid 1 red cent over their initial offer of 33 cents as holders caved pretty quickly.

Datt was a vocal holder and antagonist against the offer with from memory circa 2% of EAR...I've oft wondered if that experience of not being able to impact the outcome shaped his larger stake in ADT in some way. The odds were always against holders as the directors (who had long and close ties to NST) stood to gain tens of millions of options in any "takeover event" and immediately recomended holders accept the offer. Obviously thats the major difference here...the register. But I do wonder how many shares SFR really control through nominees and friendly brokers (and possibly friendly ex-directors as you suggested), how quickly they could move to 50% and what they are prepared to do if they get there.

Someone may be able to add clarity here but my understanding is that at 75% the board can pass "special resolutions" such as taking the company private and become a failry special bunch of arsehats if they so choose. However such resolutions can be thwarted by retail holders as there are dual thresholds of 75% of the votes PLUS 50% of the number of voters who vote. So effectively a large number of committed retail holders can band together to defeat such resolutions if they are organised and committed. Remote possibility this may be useful info here but worth keeping in the back of our collective minds nonetheless.

Paul is noones idea of an idiot aa we well know. I expect he has gamed out every scenario and has a plan. My gut feeling is there will be a series of ann's in quick succession over the coming weeks (been a bloody long time since we've had an update from Raska it would be a lovelly kicker if we had something of real; note there or some survey results from other targets around Vares tpo go wioth permits/DFS etc) which will be triggerred by the permits and the desire to move the SP onto safer ground ahead of any offer.

Re $7....sure its at the upper end but all these $4-$5 numbers thrown about are only in consideration of Rupice/Veovoca. ADT is much more than that IMO.




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