That all makes perfect sense to me and I think it could play out as you mention. The exploration upside and first mover advantage are huge. Hard to price but I wouldn’t want anything less then $7 per share. My advice to holders would be do not sell into market when the first offer comes!
I tend to think what is the negative in sandfire launching a $4 bid? They either will end up with Adriatic (for a much higher price then $4) or they start a bidding war. Either way they win.
Another scenario was posted by a major holder Datt Capital a few months ago. The post is as follows (posted on twitter).
Hypothesis: $ADT.ax would fit nicely into $S32.ax's portfolioClear geographic gap in S32 projects
-S32 looking to increase base metal exposure
-Big focus on ROIC - Vares' financial metrics are off the charts
-Material effect on shareholder return for S32
-S32.ax's best growth opportunities in Hermosa & Ambler years away from permitting & production.
-ADT.ax's Vares should receive full permits shortly.-
-ADT's exploration opportunity is significant in proven mineral belts in line w/ S32's strategy
Possible Scenarios, page-2
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Last
$3.93 |
Change
-0.080(2.00%) |
Mkt cap ! $1.088B | |||
| Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
| $4.02 | $4.05 | $3.91 | $4.364M | 1.107M |
Buyers (Bids)
| No. | Vol. | Price($) |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | 14192 | $3.93 |
Sellers (Offers)
| Price($) | Vol. | No. |
|---|---|---|
| $3.94 | 993 | 2 |
View Market Depth
| Last trade - 16.10pm 04/06/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
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Last
$3.94 |
Change
-0.080 ( 1.73 %) |
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| Open | High | Low | Volume | ||
| $4.02 | $4.04 | $3.91 | 206233 | ||
| Last updated 15.59pm 04/06/2024 ? | |||||
| ADT (ASX) Chart |