Now none of the below may happen but as each day goes by and people see who rolls in they will be able to work it out.
The dilema for those staying on is that if OZL get over 75% they will delist AVB. I expect to see Glencore and Greenstone declare next week and the opportunity funds will appear on AVB register by mid-week (unless offer extended perhaps).
After the offer closes there will be zero liquidity if OZL get above 75%.
There will be no borrowings to build Centro/PB etc as OZL will want to legally dilute until they get above 90%. Therefore they will cap raise. They have heaps of spare cash to spend. They will probably have to offer cap raising participation to retail holders (otherwise minority share holding rules can be brought into play). But that means anyone hanging on would need to be prepared to roll the dice for at least 2 to 3 years IMO, even though a quick cap raise could see OZL at 90% plus followed by compulsory acquisition.
OZL % will creep (or bolt) up the register with each funding event. They might come back after 6 months with a better second offer but they might not or it might be at same price or lower?
OZL are in a position to raise their way to 90% and compulsory acquisition within a very short time frame. The question then becomes what valuation would be placed on AVB. If anyone wants to try a valuation exercise that accounts for dilution/increased capital base (could they do a raise at 7c? last share price prior to TO offer?) that might help people work it all out.
Now none of the above may happen but as each day goes by and people see who rolls in they will be able to work it out.
PS If you are angry and they have broken the law sue them. Don't let your emotions rule your investment decision IMO.
