Rough 2012 timetable looking at the anns and other increasingly likely events:
Late March - DFT 1 completed
April 27 EGM/Patent
May-June ...AGL 100% ?
Mid June or before - LV module financing done!
July - carbon price
Aug LYP clean up submission for $990 mill
Sept-Oct DFT 2/3 done
Sept-Oct -> binding deal making goes into overdrive?
____________________________________
Now lets look at the possible 2012 left field events (no order) that are becoming less left field:
* Initial Inner Mongolia module funding/construction
* More Inner Mongolia burners commit to modules
* Indian multiple module funding/construction
* Indian Matmor partner financier locked in
* ECT get their own coal allocation (why not?)
* Indian patent granted
* LV module construction starts
* Oppie conversion incentives start - $20 mill possible
* USA MoU?...have the patent and the EPA is now serious
* Hong Kong based 20% CSI Monash could take this anywhere
* Feel free to add
____________________________
After IP ann July 2009...600 mill ESI...480 mill ESIO...so 1080 mill f/diluted
After EGM April 2012...1801 mill ESI...1092 mill ESIO...so 2900 mill f/diluted
2009 on IP ann the sp ran from 1.6c to 11.5c in about 6 weeks...to f/d mcap $124 mill
2012 so far - 0.5c to 2.2c...f/d mcap (based on 2900 mill) $64 mill
So to get back to the 2009 mcap the sp needs to be 4.4c
However, ECT has effectively been re-listed last Aug...but interesting to look back. Fundamentals look like busting the 4.4c sometime in May imo.
0.5c to 10c was a 20 bagger dream - nahhh not gunna happen....2.2c to 10c is a 4.5 bagger...suddenly looks very possible this year....maybe more
The Dow will likely be down 100 or more tonight...but imo the USA (research gas driven boom coming) Europe and China will be ok this year...in any case we have the DFT funding/CSI locked in. I am FAR less concerned re macro outlook than I was 6 mth ago. Fact is King Coal dewaterers will reign in Asia for many moons to come.
The usual BM crowd will be chanting "P&D dog" for a long time yet...let them chant. As fundamentals assert themselves my guess is they will become more muted. Monash and friends dont care what forum posters say! No doubt (quietly) some have been buying in, having recognised the trend.
ECT is not a P&D stock any longer. These posters (on HC and another forum) live in the PAST...get over it!
Even WITHOUT Monash - ECT have displayed a remarkable turnaroundculture across the Board. Remarkable. We have a dream Team of highly credentialed guys that 99% ASX microcap s/holders could only dream about.
Deal makers and dilution haters extraordinaire/IP experts/Engineering excellence/Communication galore...
The ingredients are all already there...wait till Monash and friends arrive...and they are looking way beyond 2012!
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