We had a very rough week behind us with the bots ravaging the share price of NUH and more retail holders who lost their nerves and sold out.
The big question is now how many sales can NUH achieve to underpin the share price and put a fair valuation on this company.
There has been talk that business is bigger then anticipated and that we now not speak about lots of 5000 buds, but a tenth fold figure so far making it around 50,000 units this early in the roll out of the IQbuds.
It shows that there is serious customer demand for the product and that the retailers want them in their stores.
This is an excellent sign in my opinion, as we are still in the very beginning of rolling out the product and the IQbuds have barely reached the retail shelves so far.
According to the only broker report out so far, they anticipated sales of at least worth $1 million.
"We forecast sales of $3M(7.5 k) in FY17e, $19.9M (50k) in FY18e and $39.9M (100k) in FY19e. We note that Bragi following launch sold 100k units in its first six months, while Forbes has quoted a revenue estimate for Doppler Labs of US$100m in 2017. So we expect our assumption are relatively conservative. Also, ca. $1M of the $3M in sales are from existing pre-orders awaiting shipment.''
So even with the little news we have so far it looks like NUH does not think anymore in 7500 units but already in 50,000 units needed now in the roll out. If they manage to get those 50,000 units in the market by the end of this current month then it could be feasible for them to get much higher sales then the 7500 units in the forecast of the Fosters broker report.
If so, then the forecast share price for the 7500 units being sold in FY17 sound very cheap and we should be carrying a multiple of the 18 cts per share. The 50,000 Units they allocated for FY18 will look like a joke if this comes true.
My gut feeling tells me that this will be the case, but we need to get hold of sales figures to be able to confirm this. One thing I do know , when the bots become ruthless in their practise to push the share price down then this is for a very good reason.
In this case I can see the reason only as being a positive reason ,meaning they are shaking the tree extremely hard because NUH is going places and soon, when sales figures do come out it will be very hard to get more shares at the current cheap price.
I feel very optimistic and hope that we get a few updates this month to confirm my thoughts.
(20min delay)