AMI 5.56% 19.0¢ aurelia metals limited

Possible valuation

  1. 1,239 Posts.
    Our current valuation is basically based on Hera alone:
    7x Hera FCF [at 30.000 ounces* x 1000 Au$ op-profit i.e 30 mio / year] = 210 mio +20 mio cash - 100 mio debt = 130 mio.

    (*confusingly, when discussing opcosts of "only 395 Au$" in their presentations, they deduct the income from zinc and lead - but of course you can do that only from the 30000 ounces of actual gold production; they say so expressly in some older reports, but if often gets overlooked, even by the professional broker reports ...).

    Does't include upside from Nymagee etc, otoh, there is still some uncertainty fro getting Hera fully up and running (getting smaller and smaller, though)

    Now lets say we get the reserve + minelife up to ten years. That should translate to

    10x Hera FCF [at 30.000 ounces* x 1000 Au$ op-profit i.e 30 mio / year] = 300 mio +20 mio cash - 100 mio debt
    = 220 mio Au$.
    / 330 mio Shares => 0,66 $/share.

    Add in a working Hera plant and maybe some copper from Hera deeps, and we could easily look at the old high of 80 cents. Maybe more ...

    Oh, and if we get Hera to run well above design specification ... ?
    Last edited by mtm100: 08/09/14
 
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