possible valuation, page-13

reggiemiller,

Few thoughts on valuation of CNP at this stage.

> NTA is useful - just remember that this measure is after debt is taken out, and you don't want to be using any of those intangible assets in calculating the 'A' in NTA

> Service business is likely more conservatively $1-2b at the moment. I have not included service business value in my estimations as:
- provides 'upside' if left out all together, which enhances margin of safety
- hard to predict future revenue stream i.e. potential redemptions from FUM, less FUM going forward, selling of managed assets to pay down debt (and not able to keep management rights etc), lower returns from property funds for next few years due to increased cost of funds.

>a lot of the intangibles are to do with service business so cannot be included twice. I leave out intangibles all together when valuing in these type of situations.

>a 15% decline is overall asset values as suggested would be incredibly devastating to CNP... almost wipe it out due to the 75% gearing. In my calculations I was looking at virtually no decline in Australian assets and about 10-15% decline is US (looks like it will be about 10%), which should be okay.

Unfortunately I do all my value calculations on scrap pieces of paper, which invariably go missing :) (bad habit)... IMO as long as you purchased under $0.50 you will be fine as there should be sufficient margin of safety based on the hard assets.

This is based on an assumption of survival - which I made based on the strong cash flows (assumption was that cash flows are strong enough to keep paying the banks interest so they wouldn't call in the loans). Breakup value/firesale value is next to nix.

Of course the wild card is the need for any future equity injection - but I don't believe that the board will do anything stupid.