possible valuation, page-17

Just adding my 2c to the mix (and I dont hold CNP)

Most people are saying that the fate of the co rests on the values of the assets in the USA and Aus.

Using UK as an example, commercial values have dropped 20+% and are still suspected to fall further. Even the vulcher funds are waiting on the side lines as they dont want to be seen buying before the bottom. (There are commercial deals coming to the market in areas with yields in the 8s and 9s. Admittedly smaller deals but still)

EU is seeing a slide in yeilds also with prices coming off. It is still behind the US and will be very market and country specific but generally its losing steam.

I think the US started the slide about the same time as the UK however generally I dont think yields got quite as sharp (excluding a few pinnacle deals) in the US which will benefit it on the downswing. The other thing about the US is that interest rates are lower than the UK and hence anyone with a healthy balance sheet should be able to achieve increased returns through prudent leveraging in the US at the moment. My personal view is that the US (as long as it doesnt get smashed into a recession meltdown) commercial property market should fare better than the UK and parts of the EU.

Aus, 'most' property players were relatively conservative with debt, however towards the end the prices did push yields into very tight territory and hence there will be some push back. Also there is no chance that there will be a positive yield spread on property in Aus unless funds flow back into financing and rates drop alot which I dont think will happen in the short term. So I think in that regard Aus property will come off but probably not as badly as elsewhere given that yields werent as tight as places like the UK (it would appear) and the economy is still just ticking over given the resource push etc. Also I dont think supply in Aus was as much as elsewhere.

Ok I havent re read my message so excuse me if its a bit jumbled etc. (unfortunately I am at work so dont have time to spell, grammar and sanity check)