Yes PEs are a bit useless as they are backward looking. for that reason the market has historically priced in a premium or discount depending on the outlook. In a longterm bull PE 18 is a average premium and in the long term bear averages go down to 7......or so said a chart i recently saw.
the other thing is let us not forget that for all of this decade earning have been all smoke and mirrors based on a BS credit and real estate bubble. This is not some gentle downtrend in earning we are looking at.....this is a brave new world into which we are being thrust.
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