"Assuming (and it's a big assumption) that earnings remain...

"Assuming (and it's a big assumption) that earnings remain static and the PE was to fall to the bear average low of 7 then the SP 500 still has about 40% to lose.

That may not happen right now. this may be a major low with a big rally followed by a deeper low down the track....if it were to happen at all"


I'm on the same page as you 9L

But would also say that if earnings actually decrease in the coming quarters then sp's still have a lot more than 40% to shed !!!

I think we are currently looking for the bottom of wave 3 (Elliott) to be in, which will be followed by a decent bounce of maybe even a few months during which time investors will be lulled into thinking "the bottom" IS in & they will start to flood back into the market only to be completely wiped out by the final wave down.