Hello there. Actually I don't find most comparisons to be fair, all the companies mentioned are very interesting investments as well, with unique propositions, just like this.
This deposit is unique for me not just because of the size, yes it is very large, but for how widespread the tin mineralisation is alongside spodumene. Over the last decade the price of spodumene concentrate was as low as $250/t, while tin would easily have averaged around $20000/T. Tin is a relatively stable market looking at the next 10 years, it is unlikely to experience price fluctuations that are greater than 25%. It will potentially be a very strong co-product to spodumene. The initial test work done by the french geological society was very encouraging with both products reporting to a high grade concentrate at a great recovery.
Lithium exploration is interesting, but a good tin deposit is much rarer (looking forward). On tin exploration potential, there are few interesting things I picked up in historical work that has me very curious for the detailed exploration program to begin. For example visual logs of historical drill holes has indicated that tin mineralisation appears to increase at depth. There are also thin zones of high grade tin reportedly as high as 10-15%, there was an even an idea mentioned that a larger example of these zones supported years of tin production on its own in the past. I'd like to see proper exploration map this out.
A large tin deposit of low but consistent grade starting at surface does have an economic case of its own, particularly if the met work looks good and low cost inputs like hydropower are available. They can make 0.5% copper work at very low operating cost in Zambia. For this reason I've been comparing potential economics at Manono to bulk tonnage low grade 0.5-0.7% grade copper operations in Zambia (one taken over for US$1.5B) because 0.2% tin is about 0.75% copper equivalent (in-situ). Obviously this comparison is pointless/verging on stupid without comparing the mining/crushing/processing costs, but there's a few data points to look at now and seems like it has potential.
Step one on infrastructure side was rebuilding the road and hydropower dam, by some miracle we already have a partner for this and its underway according to person I spoke with at Cominiere. I think if you have reliable cheap power and a good road, you can even attract the kind of partners that can upgrade the spodumene to a $15-20k/T LiOH product that will make the lithium transport costs go from 30-50% of costs down to 5%.
Valuation, not sure. Its worth what the market thinks it's worth plus a healthy premium at takeover.
I think peer valuations like the big brother Galaxy, Ore, Pilbara, Kidman, Nemaska, Altura, Birimian, even other lithium stocks in Canada, China definitely has an effect. So the higher they go, the better, rising tide lifts all boats.
The jurisdiction and state of infrastructure will see us discounted. Klaus and partners will give us a premium. (Most of his projects trade at a premium to peers, including this one, relative to its actual progress). Size and commodity mix will give us a big boost. Difficult jurisdictions have a customer. I was lucky to have a takeover of one of my stocks this year already, Mariana Resources, a tier 1 gold deposit recently discovered in Turkey. That offer was made at an 84% premium, made me feel like re-enacting a scene from wolf of wall street.
Almost definitely rambling now, shouldn't be allowed near a keyboard at this hour.
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