With Cameroonian leader Paul Biya widely tipped for re-election in polls scheduled for October, the burning question now for many observers of the central African state is: Who will succeed him? Biya, 78, has ruled the oil-exporting nation for 29 years, making him among Africa's longest rulers. After a constitutional tweak in 2008 which removed term limits, he is set to run again in what, given his age, is potentially his last seven-year term. Some are even drawing parallels with Ivory Coast, where the 199 3 death of leader Felix Houphouet-Boigny created a power vacuum that led to a 2002-2003 civil war and political impasse only resolved last month with the ousting of Laurent Gbagbo.
There are a lot of questions being raised about the issue of succession and what would happen in the post-Biya era," said Roddy Barclay, London-based analyst at Control Risks. "This is the one major threat to stability in Cameroon at the moment." Stability in Cameroon matters to the wider region. Its $22 billion-a-year economy is by far the largest in central Africa. Aside from its oil sector, it hosts miners such as Canada-listed Geovic and Australia's Sundance Resources. Its port Douala is vital to traf fic in the oil-rich Gulf of Guinea.
Over the years, Biya has achieved stability while astutely outmanoeuvring opposition both within his ruling CPDM party and outside it. With Biya all-powerful, there is no clear successor or plan to manage a post-Biya era. That, commentators say, could ignite a fight for control of the CPDM similar to the power struggle that took place in 1982 after the resignation of Cameroon's first president Ahmadou Ahidjo and which led to a bloody attempted coup in 1984. "It is therefore expected that similarly, there w ould be recurring attempted palace revolutions at the heart of the CPDM in the coming months and years," Franklin Nyamsi, a Cameroonian academic at Lille University in France, says in his blog.
Frailties in existing political structures do not help. According to Cameroon's constitution as it stands now, the president of the senate upper house is the successor in the case of any mid-term vacancy in office, with the task of organising elections within 120 days. But Cameroon has no senate. Provisions of the constitution that created a senate are yet to be applied, leaving open the prospect of a future dispute over the legality of a succession. Ruling by co-option and patronage, Biya has silenced dis sent within the ruling party and the largely ineffective opposition.
Standard Bank emerging markets strategist Samir Gadio said the fragmented state of the opposition and the historic division of the country into French- and English-speaking regions meant that even the main opposition SDF was unlikely to trouble Biya. "The SDF is also perceived as a regional party which enjoys most of its support from the anglophone region, so you don't really have a nationwide opposition party," Gadio noted. A few in Biya's party that were seen as possible rivals saw their hopes dashed as corruption charges were brought against them - including Jean-Marie Atangana Mebara and Titus Edzoa, both former ministers who also held the powerful position of secretary-general at the presidency. Both men are still in jail.
Senior party members such as economist Esther Dang, a former head of the country's national investment cooperation agency; Mila Assoute, or member of parliament Paul Abine Ayah, have all quit the party to stand as independent challengers. With no obvious heavyweight identified as favourite to succeed Biya, a string of names from the CPDM and opposition are doing the rounds in local political and media circles.
Independent weekly Emergence published names of potential successors including Rene Sadi, a long-time Biya confidant who is currently CPDM secretary-general; Minister of Territorial Administration Marafa Hamidou Yaya; Justice Minister Amadou Ali; and Laurent Esso, secretary-general at the presidency. "There are going to be various personal rivalries and demands for ethnic regional representation within the CPDM following the death or departure of Biya," Barclay said. "Any attempt to impose a successor on t he party will likely meet resistance in some parts," he added.
Biya allies have brushed aside the succession debate as irrelevant and said they are focusing on the October election, insisting Biya is the "natural candidate" of the CPDM. But opposition parties warn that Cameroon risks the fate of many countries in the region that have been plunged into crisis and even civil wars during critical succession moments.
We are trying to avoid the situation of Ivory Coast," said Elizabeth Tamajong, secretary-general of the opposition SDF (Social Democratic Front). Tamajong said the party had called for a transitional government that would reorganise Cameroon's institutions and remove ambiguities which could lead to succession disputes. "As long as the institutions are not functioning properly, anything can happen. Cameroon is at risk," she said. - Reuters
