post reserve upgrades

If anyone has a Euroz update on BPT I would be keen to read it as they had a 1.06 target pre shale drilling and STO upgrade. Reading their report in Nov the were using a value of 15 BOE NPV.

J thought I would do the excerise and include the booking I think will happen by June 11. most as we know are mere formalities with , with the only highly probably but not yet sealed being the sacb 152 petaloules offer.

If I add 66 plus 12 (STO) plus 3.1(Itc) plus 5'( Cb drilling assuming a low 25 percent success rate ) and 26 m (SACB jV )

That's 112 million boe by June .
Now lets assume cash falls to 100 million ( cash flow minus expenses )
At an NPV of 15 BOE as Euroz suggest most oilers trade at thats 1.64 per share
At an NPV of 12 that is 134 per share.
ThAt is the core value of the business. As brokers upgrade the reserves come July my view is you will see a low range UBS , CIti of about 115 and an upper range Euroz, Mac bank, Wilson , JP morgan of 155-165 And that's assuming now one starts to value shale, if they do than buiag brokers will have 2 dollar targets. Ofcourse by that stage I would expect BPT to be trading in the 130-150 range anyway.

I would love it if anyone wants to challenge my valuations,'despite them being in line with brokers NPVs I welcome discussion as the Los dangerous thing is to think you can't be wrong in your analysis.