ECT (ASX) Post TPA signing SP

Originally posted by aboutus ↑

Dear all

Though I am very new to posting, I am with ESI as a part part of family syndicate, with substantial, and increasing, investment for last number of years, and would like to stress, without any doubts we are "true believers', completely convinced to ESI research, revolutionary technologies and consequentially long term active contribution towards better living standards for millions around the glob.

Although we are dealing with a medium and long term indisputable "winner", however technology implementation, as history demonstrates, the function of research, development on the one hand and general market dynamics"/ demand and implementation on the other, is taking some time in achieving company outlined objectives. However, not only in my opinion, this time arrived, for ESI to be treated as "blue chip" versus speculative company. Certainly in our minds.

It appear most of the posters / investors, to different degree, understand all the above and demonstrated its loyalty and commitment over prolonged period of time.
I greatly appreciate your input and valuable contribution so many of you are making to this forum, people like myself can learned from, as your factual, fundamentals and technical research is outstanding.

And now, at the beginning of 2016 I decided to go "public", to add my voice to current Post TPA signing SP discussion at this critical and important time in the ESI history. My family asked me very similar to many of you asking question, what current share price should be, and although I do not know the answer to this question, however decided to speculate for a wile and identify it through future 2017 and 2018 valuations, through "backwards extrapolation", to arrive to approximate share value.

Although on one habnd it is appropriate to make following assumptions, however treated as a given:

Arrowhead Report correctly reflects all publicly known and unknown facts

the TPA is signed on win/win bases, with no negative "surprises" to ESI identity and commercial "flexibility"

Coldry technology confirmed in meeting projected or better levels at industrial scale

Matmor technology confirmed in meeting projected or better levels at industrial scale

In arriving to my conclusion, I took under consideration ESI operation and technology potential in "growing" markets, in contrast to stable or declining, with no or very limited direct competition over the next years of industrial environment ESI is going to operate in. I also would like to add another dimensions, like need for "psychological reward" for some and general market comparison, as no many companies can offer same or similar return on investment, And hopefully when the state of "manipulator`s paradise" is behind us.

Based on simple weighted average, with future growth and risks mitigation factors "home made" formula, I arrived to following conclusion for 2016 ASV (average share value) of $0.305 - $0.440.

Taking under consideration Arrowhead Financial Forecast Data.(in AUD) for year:

2017 average EPS $0.06/0.04 = $0.050 x 15 = ASV $0.750

2018 average EPS $0.12/0,09 = $0.105 x 15 = ASV $1.575

ASV for 2017/18 = (0.750 + 1.575) ; 2 = $1.1625

Although future growth is already included in EPS, however applying mitigation co officiant of 65% - 50% , ASV around the middle of 2016 should be expected to be
$0.4068 - $0.5812.

It is important to remember the "general" environment ESI is operating is strong upwards, with only one way for share price to go, way up, under condition all above mention assumptions are satisfied. And just in case, to be on safe side, if another level of mitigation applied by arbitrary coefficient, say 25%, than revised ASV at the middle of 2016 to be somewhere in between $0.30 - $0.43. In my opinion this price can be achieved based on the future earnings potential.

It is only my speculative prediction and future is going to provide us , how close we are to these predictions.

All in my opinion and please do your own research.

ESI always on top, and all the best in 2016 to all holders

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30c mid year.........um

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(20min delay)
Last 0.3¢		Change -0.001(16.7%)		Mkt cap ! $7.929M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
0.3¢	0.3¢	0.3¢	$79	26.33K

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