An Indian fertilizer group is playing a poker game with...

An Indian fertilizer group is playing a poker game with PotashCorp but apparently PotashCorp has seen the "bluff" of Indians and opened their cards.

India consumes 5.5mt potash a year (10% of global usage) and it is expected to reach 6.5mt this year. But they still want to play poker game!

Obviously they are ignoring the tight potash supply while Brazil now keen to pay as high as North American potash price which is around $550pt, for securing their potash demand.

Indians may also not be aware that Canadian potash producers always make very good market research and know very well potash trends and demands of their customers.

China will also come to the sales counter in next month for the new supply agreements as their two agreements were made for only first half this year.

Uralkali and Silvinit have been merged just recently and no one knows how they would behave on new potash sales price!

I think there will be a deficit (1mt-2mt)between supply and demand at the end of this year as potash demand from Brazil, India and USA will go over the roof because of the very low inventory levels for potash and related agricultural products.

News;
--------------------
India, which has been battling with Canadian exporters over the price of potash shipments, is "running out of time" to reach an agreement, the head of the world's largest potash exporter PotashCorp said Wednesday.

May 18, 2011
Source: Click here

Other countries are quickly securing available supplies of potash, and the industry has shown it will sell out of potash even without purchases by India, which accounts for 10% of global usage, Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Chief Executive Bill Doyle told investors at a New York conference.

An Indian fertilizer group earlier this spring talked about the prospect of taking a "potash holiday" and walking away from the market rather than signing a new import agreement at high prices. Potash exports out of Canada are handled by Canpotex, a marketing arm owned by Potash Corp., Mosaic Co. and Agrium Inc.

But Doyle dismissed such threats as "bluff poker." He said an agreement could be reached as soon as next week, at a fertilizer industry conference in Montreal.

Even when an agreement is reached, shipments wouldn't occur until July, he said. Meanwhile fertilizer plants in India are on the verge of shutting down, Doyle said.

"That's not a healthy situation," he said.
...