POTENTIA DEAL CLOSER TO DONE, page-22

Here's my take: Potentia have been trying to be too cute and, like many, expected global markets to capitulate after the CS saga. Potentia were hoping markets would fall to the point where the TYR board would beg it to reconsider taking it at $1.60. That scenario for the most part has not yet eventuated. In fact, since the end of the four week DD period Potentia had 7 weeks ago, markets have rallied. The ASX200 is up more or less 3%, and the Nasdaq about 8%. Yet from the media rumourmill, Potentia are only possibly going to increase its previous bid by about 10%. This is a paltry increase when you consider the last bid was rejected in no uncertain terms, and that TYR has a positive beta with the broader market. Potentia do not deserve TYR at $1.75-$1.80, but that's my best guess of where this lands. Given stocks often trade at a ~5% discount to takeover prices in case it doesn't go through, my personal thesis is expecting this to keep creeping to $1.60, but not go a lot north of that until we get some clarity. Otherwise, we've already been given a dress rehearsal of expected price action should it not go through, with the last rejected bid going back to $1.20ish, when the broader markets were even lower than they are now. DYOR.