Potential 1st half result.....

Below is my take on the half year result. I'll have used the P&L format from BAL's annual report. Obviously there are assumptions (explanation at bottom) but here goes:

	Column 1	Column 2	Column 3
0	Sales – Infant	136million
1	Non-Infant	19.3
2	Gross Sales		155.3
3	Less trading rebates (2.42%)		3.7
4	Revenue		151.6
5	Cost of Sales (67.41%)		102.10
6	Gross Profit		49.50
7	Less Distribution/Selling (5.25%)	7.9
8	Employee Costs (2.5%)	3.8
9	Marketing & Promotion (1.25%)	1.9
10	Administrative & Other (2.4%)	3.6	17.2
11	EBIT		32.3
12	Less interest		0.4
13	Profit before tax		31.9
14	Tax (30.1%)		9.6
15	NPAT (half year)		22.3

Infant sales based on A2 guidance of 68 million sales to end of December. I assume BAL, as market leader, stock out would be double A2 sales (conservative). Non-infant - took 15% from 2015 sales (19.75m) and growth was 170% from previous year. I assume 90% growth divided by 2. With cost of sales i took the trend line from 2014-2015 figures. Again was conservative. Two important factors are sales and cost of sales - will determine the bottom line. For example a 10% increase in sales would increase NPAT by 2 million.
So with the price increase and increase supply to kick in for 2nd half then annualised 2016 NPAT could be over 50million. Please DYOR.