OK i have taken an interest in this HPA (high purity alumina)...

OK

i have taken an interest in this HPA (high purity alumina) project for a number of years now

today, a sales agreement was announced with Mitsubishi, who hopefully can also provide funding

therefore, it is probably timely to start a warranted 10-bagger thread

here goes

Current exchange rate: 70 cents
CAPEX: US$80M or AUS$115M
Production: 4 million kg per annum
HPA price: US$23/kg or A$33/kg
Operating cost: A$10/kg (company has said A$8/kg)
EBITDA: A$92M per annum
Deprec & sustaining capital: A$8M pa
Interest: A$1M pa (over 20 years)
Tax: 30%
NPAT: A$58M pa
Current shares & options on issue: 160M
Possible new shares: 40M (merely a buffer)
CAPEX shares 35% equity @ 20 cents each: 200M
Total shares: 400M
EPS (earnings per share): 14.5 cents
PE ratio x 8 = $1.16 long term share price target
current share price: 12 cents
baggers: 8.7

reduce CAPEX equity to 30% makes 370M shares on issue
EPS = 15.7
share price target = $1.25
baggers at 12 cents = 9

up PE ratio to 9

Disallowed!