While on the subject of market potential, the other day, I did...

While on the subject of market potential, the other day, I did some rough calculations on the likely PAR share price in 5-6 years, if everything goes according to plan.

Started off with an expectation of around 100M OA TAM for the western wealthy nations in 26/27when Zilosul is likely to hit the market for OA.

Say there is a realistic expectation of 10%(as you said above) penetration of that market and let’s take an in between figure of $4K per patient treated. That gives a yearly sales figure of $40B. I think a conservative PAR share of that could be around 20% or $8B, allowing the rest for manufacturer and distributors.

Now lets postulate that PAR will need another 2 CR to get Zilosul on to market and take the issued capital out to about 400M shares. Lets say MC is 10 times actual or near term revenue. MC = $80B. Share value $80B divided by 400M= $200 per share just for OA.
Mind boggling.

PAR Price at posting: $1.28 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held

Posted this rough calculations a few weeks ago, using
round figures for simplicity. The only thing I would
change, is that my timeline for market penetration may
be a little optimistic. However, I think there will be such
pent up demand for the product and if PAR gets pre
approval publicity right, demand will quickly explode.

Also, if Govt drug subsidies are timely and Bene
are well prepared for the demand.

Note my MC is 10 x revenue, not NPAT.