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05/10/22

20:26

Post #: 64049449
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Originally posted by StevieBuoy: ↑

For 3 years or so now I have been a shareholder in PAR and a reader of the PAR HC forum. I have rarely contributed posts in the past as their seemed little for me to contribute, PAR and Zilosul being so well covered already. Although what first got me so excited about Zilosul and PPS was its disease modifying capabilities and as this subject was further elaborated upon yesterday with such astounding results I thought I'd take the opportunity to comment.

Yesterday's Coppo report made a brief attempt at valuing what the OA market might be worth to PAR in light of a potential DMOAD label although I didn't like their attempt and found it of little value. Why? Because I believed they were overly pessimistic and conservative with their figures. I understand why people do this although yesterday's report took it too far. When people do this I find it's because they are lacking in courage and conviction. When it comes to PAR and Zilosul I am not lacking in either so will attempt to redo this equation using more realistic figures.

- Coppo Report (CR) used 33 million people with OA as their guide although projected number of OA sufferers by 2030 is 67 million. I will use this figure of 67 million.

-CR uses 10% market share while noting that most front line therapies achieve 30-50% market share. I will use 50%.

-CR uses US$3k a treatment while I will use US$6k (figure determined by independent 3rd party earlier this year as what a company could charge for a DMOAD.)

-CR uses a 15% royalty and I am happy with that.

So the equation looks like,

33 500 000 (50% of projected 2030 OA population) x $6000 (cost of DMOAD treatment) x 15% (royalty)

= $30 150 000 000

or Thirty Billion One Hundred and Fifty Million.

When this number came out I just assumed that I had stuffed up the calculation and went back and redid it. The next thing I did was put the number into Google just to double check.....

Although it was the same number that kept coming back every time.

And this is just in the US.

Now I am not saying that this is what the company will achieve, all I am saying is that using perfectly reasonable assumptions on % of OA patients being offered Zilosul at a price point which was determined by a 3rd party earlier this year at a historically valid % of revenue royalty rate this is the potential prize on offer.

A potentially amazing opportunity for any investor with a long enough time frame and the patience to hold.

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I don't disagree with any of your inputs (or your output)

the problem is when you tell people par can have 1/3 of the revenue of apple there is a chance they want to put you in the loony bin. I guess that's why they dialled it down a bit

at one point apple was tiny too of course

here's to hoping you are right

PAR Price at posting: $1.62 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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