Firstly, thanks
@VOGC for your work here. I agree with your analysis and is something I've kept to myself the whole time. There keeps being the hints of liquids as in light oil, but the company is being conservative in keeping it under wraps until there is any proof.
There has also been lots of little hints, perhaps freudian slips with the mention of light oil and certainly nothing ruling it out..
OK so just playing 'overoptimistic ramper' for a minute (I know we have way too many of them on these threads, so it's a one off from me), I just want to work out some possible upside potential, with some overly bullish assumptions. Probably should put further caveats on the following, but let's assume the best possible outcome that hasn't been ruled out yet..
Assumptions, for the longer term... We have a 200m oil column in Upper Angwa, that is consistent 80% of the time in the basin traps..
Assume 18% porosity and good permability across basin..
Approx 600 sqkm of total traps = 480sqkm of oil column.
480,000,000 sqm X 200m X .18 = 17,280M m3 = 108B bbls of light oil. This is the potential oil given the above rabidly bullish assumptions. It would take a decade to prove up, maybe longer.
I'm surprised the usual rampers have not latched onto this and claimed $150 per share!!
Overall the reason I hold is partly for the dream of above, with the downside being just a lot of gas and condensate, so very worthwhile anyway.
IMHO any discovery of oil will see the usual rampers numbers look mediocre over time if we do then start to prove it up.
I suspect that with what has already been announced would pique the interest of much larger players in the O&G space, but of course they are never going to tip their hand, as it would only make buying in more expensive.
I just wanted to put the above number out once as we all discuss various 'conservative' scenarios but apart from rampant bulls with prices based on nothing material, rarely if ever discuss the full upside potential. Perhaps we could leave the full upside potential, as in the most bullish case in this thread.
It would be nice to hear from industry professionals exactly what their upside most bullish case was, as in hasn't been ruled out yet....
