Potential Invex Valuation

Here is my thinking about a potential blue sky valuation for Invex.
I'd welcome any feedback regarding the valuation or the assumptions that underpin this.

The valuation is based on these assumptions based on my interpretation of publicly available information.

1. FDA and EMA harmonise with one registration trial after the respective meetings with the regulators.
2. FDA and EMA agree with headache days as the primary endpoint.
3. No issues with pre-clinical studies.
4. No further capital raising and dilutionary options. ~80 million shares on issue
5. Phase 3 meets clinically significant endpoints of greater than 2 headache day reduction in a month.
6. Valuation of a Biotech is multiple of 3-4 peak sales.
7. Invex chooses a buyout after achieving registration rather than milestone or partnering option.
8. Use Fifty One Capital calculation of 100,000 existing IIH patients https://invextherapeutics.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/March-FiftyOne-Capital-Report-.pdf
9. Accept Fifty One Capital penetration rates of 20% existing patients and 50% new patient.
10. Accept Invex Pricing of $1500/month
    

Valuation is made on these calculations:

Existing
- 100,000 patients x 20% penetration = 20,000 patients treated with Presendin
New:
- Assume 5 in 100,000 annual incidence, with Europe having 700 million, and US having 300 million - 50000 new patients
- Assume penetration is 50% penetration(diagnosed 60% and medical treatment 90%)
- Total = 20,000 new patients treated with Presendin.
Total = 40,000 patients x $18K = $US 720 million peak sales.
3-4x peak sales = Valuation

US & Europe Registration:
$US Dollars of 1.5 - 2 billion dollars for a buyout at the end of 2023.
Equates to a share price of ~ $AUD 30-40.

Europe Registration Only:
60% of the market.
Higher-end equates to US $1.2 billion, around the $AUD20 mark.

*This valuation is highly speculative, only my thoughts, and I am a shareholder.*