Potential Market Size for Mesoblast products in US

As Mesoblast enters approval and commercialization phase, it is useful to understand and estimate the market size of each of its pipelines. In fact, it's difficult to estimate the market for a new and revolutionary product such as stem-cell treatment with many different variables including marketing, pricing, regulatory environment and so forth, all influencing the sales and take-up rate of the treatment. But, I think the size of patient pool might be a good proxy of the potential commercial opportunities. I will use the US market, given its status of being the largest medical market in the world to attempt to gain some insight into the potential profit for MSB in the US market.

1. Remestermcel-L for Acute Graft Versus Host Disease - 5500 patients in US to develop grade II-IV acute GVHD per year - Niche market(https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2018687/)

2. Revascor for moderate-advance heart failure - there's 1.3 million patients in US from the latest corporate review of MBS - Significant market

3. Revascor for end stage heart failure with LVAD - In 2014, there was 3,855 of  LVAD patients. - Niche market but should grow with the adoption rate of LVAD, given heart-transplants are difficulty to achieve for many patients(https://www.mdedge.com/chestphysician/article/148584/heart-failure/lvad-use-soars-elderly-americans)

In general, 5.7 million people in the US had HF in 2017 and this number expects to grow to 8m by 2030 - Heart failure is a important market https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5494150/ 

4. MPC-06 for Chronic Low Back Pain - about 31 million Americans experience low back pain at any given time - Significant market https://www.acatoday.org/Patients/Health-Wellness-Information/Back-Pain-Facts-and-Statistics

5. MPC-300 for Rheumatoid Arthritis - 1.3 million Americans https://www.healthline.com/health/rheumatoid-arthritis/facts-statistics-infographic#4  - Significant market

6. MPC-300 for Diabetic nephropathy - Diabetic nephropathy affects one quarter of adults with diabetes in the United States. Given there's about 3 million Americans have diabetes, there might well be 0.75 million of Diabetic nephropathy patients  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diabetic_nephropathy- Significant market