Extrapolating 1) if I may, we have 1200 of the sickest most at risk kids in America with aGVHD. How many of those do you think have health insurance to pay the six figure treatment? Shall we say 50pc?
So that's 600 patients per year.
Now, what price? My understanding is somewhere around the 150k? Let's assume that insurance squashes that down 25pc. That works out to about 67m a year. But what of that is profit?
And in reality, tha is the number we need to be guessing. Not how many patients, and not even revenue per patient, because let's be honest if they go commercial and pay themselves as well as they have in dev there's gonna be a LOT of overheads. So the important question is not what is the size of the market, but how big is the slice of pie by the time it gets to shareholders.
Especially given how many there are.
Potential Market Size for Mesoblast products in US, page-3
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